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Analysis
demonstrates that the use of corrected rather than uncorrected census data
for the post-1990 redistricting had the potential to affect significantly
the opportunities for minority voters to participate fully in the political
process and elect candidates of their choice to legislative positions. In
plans for both State Senate and State House positions, the use of corrected
data would have increased the number of baseline majority-minority districts
against which the next redistricting plan will be measured. In plans for these
positions, the use of corrected data would also have presented the opportunity
to enhance minority voter strength in districts that have significant minority
representation, but fall below the majority-minority threshold. For all ten
states, the use of corrected rather than uncorrected data for the post-1990
redistricting would have had the potential to affect minority voter opportunities
in more than forty state legislative seats.
In
addition, if corrected data had been used for the apportionment of congressional
districts among states, this would have opened up an opportunity to draw an
additional majority-minority congressional district in California.
Despite
this potentially significant impact on minority voter opportunities, the shift
to corrected data for the previous redistricting would not appear to have
significant partisan effects. The potential to enhance the voting strength
of minorities would have derived from adding minorities to districts that
already were predominantly Democratic. Thus Democrats would not have gained
a partisan advantage from this process, even though minority voters are more
likely than white voters to support Democratic candidates for public office.
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