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August 7, 2001 - PricewaterhouseCoopers Census Study:
CENSUS 2000 UNDERCOUNT COULD COST STATES BILLIONS


These estimates show the effect of the Census 2000 undercount on federal funding of eight major programs over a ten year period, 2002-20012. The eight programs are Medicaid, Foster Care, Rehabilitation Services Basic Support, Child Care and Development Block Grant, Social Services Block Grant, Substance Abuse Prevention and Treatment Block Grant, Adoption Assistance, and Vocational Education Basic Grants.

State Estimated 2000 Census Undercount:
State Undercount Undercount Rate3
State/
USTotal1
Over182 Under182 State/
USTotal
Over18 Under18
United States 3,355,585 2,213,342 1,142,243 1.18 1.05 1.56

New Jersey 97,891 70,869 27,022 1.15 1.11 1.29

1Source: Dr. Eugene Ericksen, "Estimates of State and County Undercount Rates," May 1, 2001.
2PricewaterhouseCoopers calculations based on undercount rates provided by Dr. Ericksen.
3Undercount as a percent of adjusted population. U.S. Census Bureau and Dr. Eugene Ericksen, "Estimates of State and County Undercount Rates," May 1, 2001.

Selected County Estimated 2000 Census Undercount:
State, County 2000 Population Projection Estimated Undercount
Unadjusted
Count1
Adjusted
Count2
Number3 Rate4

Total, All 112 Selected Counties 125,460,358 127,081,879 1,621,521 1.28

New Jersey 8,414,350 8,512,241 97,891 1.15
Bergen County 884,118 892,354 8,236 0.92
Camden County 508,932 513,949 5,017 0.98
Essex County 793,633 808,624 14,991 1.85
Hudson County 608,975 622,595 13,620 2.19
Middlesex County 750,162 758,371 8,209 1.08
Monmouth County 615,301 620,014 4,713 0.76
Ocean County 510,916 514,011 3,095 0.60
Union County 522,541 529,612 7,071 1.34

1Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Census 2000 Redistricting Data (P.L. 94-171) Summary File, Table 1.
2Equals unadjusted population count plus undercount.
3Equals adjusted minus unadjusted 2000 population projections.
4Undercount as a percent of adjusted population. U.S. Census Bureau and Dr. Eugene Ericksen, "Estimates of State and County Undercount Rates," May 1, 2001.
5Baltimore City is an independent city (i.e., it is independent of any county organization).
6Richmond County is included in order to comprise the 5 counties of New York City.

Estimated Effect of 2000 Census Undercount On Federal Funding for the State (thousands of dollars):
State 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2002-2012

New Jersey 162 136 139 142 144 147 1,455

Total, United States 0 -31,924 -34,726 -37,826 -41,114 -44,693 -478,297
Funding Gains 16,436 245,656 265,865 288,148 311,756 319,336 3,594,843
Funding Losses -16,436 -277,580 -300,591 -325,974 -352,870 -364,028 -4,073,140

Source: PricewaterhouseCoopers calculations.

Estimated Effect of 2000 Census Undercount On Federal Funding By Selected County:
State, County Between-State Effects
(Thousands)
Within-State Effects
(Thousands)
Net Effect
Amount
(Thousands)
Percent1
 
New Jersey
Bergen County 153 15,674 15,826 0.2%
Camden County 88 6,913 7,001 0.2%
Essex County 137 -44,037 -43,900 -0.7%
Hudson County 105 -49,981 -49,876 -1.0%
Middlesex County 130 3,964 4,094 0.1%
Monmouth County 106 18,700 18,807 0.4%
Ocean County 88 21,788 21,876 0.6%
Union County 90 -7,586 -7,496 -0.2%

Source: PricewaterhouseCoopers calculations.
* Denotes less than 0.05%.
1Net effect as a percent of the adjusted funding level under the eight programs over 2002-2012
2Baltimore City is an independent city (i.e., it is independent of any county organization).
3Richmond County is included in order to comprise the 5 counties of New York city.


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