This appendix compares NPR's original savings estimates to the savings that have accrued to date as a result of changes made and those that will occur in future years if these changes remain in place. It also identifies those savings that may occur in the near future because of legislative actions well under way.
1. Streamlining the Bureaucracy Through Reengineering
The President and Congress required in statute that the executive branch reduce civilian personnel by 272,900 by the end of FY 1999. By September 30, 1994, federal agencies are projected to reduce their staffing by about 71,000. As a result, FY 1994 savings are projected to total $2.9 billion, and savings over the period of the entire initiative are estimated to total $45.9 billion by FY 1999.
In its estimates prepared as part of the congressional consideration of pending legislation, the Congressional Budget Office projected a lower savings figure. It projects savings of $34.3 billion for the same period. However, it uses a different baseline for the total number of federal employees than does the Administration, and it assumes only 221,300 personnel will be cut.
The Administration's 1993 baseline was published in the President's FY 1995 budget and totals 2,155,200 full-time equivalent employees. The Administration used this baseline to calculate the change in the total number of federal employees since January 20, 1993. CBO used as its base an adjusted July 1993 estimate of federal employment levels, totaling 2,103,600. Also, the Administration estimates the FY 1995 per-employee savings as $42,197, and CBO, using a different calculation method, estimates the FY 1995 per-employee savings as $40,706.
2. Reinventing Federal Procurement
Both houses of Congress have passed procurement bills that incorporate many of NPR's recommendations. The Congressional Budget Office has not estimated savings resulting from this pending legislation. The NPR savings estimates are lower than those projected in NPR's September 7, 1993, report. In that report, NPR estimated savings based on $200 billion in procurement spending each year over the next five years. However, federal procurement spending is shrinking faster than was then anticipated. For example, actual procurement spending in FY 1993 was $180 billion. As a result, savings from administrative efficiencies will be lower, in part because overall buying is lower. While most of the savings will accrue after pending legislation is enacted, some savings have already occurred as a result of administrative actions; however, these savings are not yet large enough to include in the estimates provided in the table.
3. Reengineering Though Information Technology
These savings include those from electronic benefits transfers. Estimates were developed by the Federal Electronic Benefits Transfer Task Force. Savings may increase as other initiatives are undertaken. Currently, estimates of their savings effect are not available.
4. Intergovernmental Administrative Costs
To date, the implementation of the recommendations that would result in these savings has not been undertaken.
5. Changes to Individual Agencies
Savings based on actions to date include the elimination of the wool and mohair programs and rescissions to a number of transportation grants. The remaining anticipated savings are largely included in pending appropriation bills. A better estimate of their five-year savings impact should be available after passage and the publication of the President's FY 1996 budget. The $3.7 billion in estimated savings pending in legislation is based on the President's Mid-Session Review of the FY 1995 budget.
Not included are savings individual agencies have achieved as a result of their own reinvention activities. (See Appendix A for agency-specific examples.)