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12
1 increase in any state of the country. We had an
2 increase of about 170,000 in our African population and
3 an increase of a million Hispanics from 1980s to 1990s
4 and increase here of about 130,000.
5 If you look at it in percentage terms, you
6 can see our growth rate increase. Our other population
7 declined from 89 percent to 81 percent. As a result of
8 this we have done what is in demographic terms a fairly
9 phenomenal rate of change. We have grown about 60
10 percent annually. We now project projections by 2005
11 Texas will be less than half Anglo and it begins to have
12 some other significant changes.
13 If you look at this in proportional terms,
14 net change in the 1980s, half of the total net additions
15 were Hispanic. If you go to 1990, 60 percent of all the
16 new additions were Hispanic
17 If you get to look at this in terms of
18 characteristic of age, we think this is also important
19 for a couple of reasons. One is everyone probably knows
20 about the major things that is happening to our
21 population nationwide, that is, we are an aging
22 population.
23 The important thing about the age structure
24 in places like Texas is twofold. First of all, we are
25 aging relatively rapidly, so for example if you look at
13
1 our age structure, our median (inaudible).
2 What's happening? Well, the aging of an
3 infamous group, the baby boomers, they are about a third
4 of the U.S. population. They're a third of the Texas
5 population, and as they grow, so does the country.
6 If you travel quite a bit, you find out that
7 every major median market has an oldies radio station.
8 What do they play? '50s, '60, '70s. I refer to those
9 as classics. Why is that? They let us know because
10 they love our money.
11 But the important thing to recognize about
12 this group is that there's a difference between their
13 immediate, intermediate effects and long term effects.
14 The long term effects we hear a lot about, social
15 Security, and other things when one in every five
16 Americans is 65.
17 This is 2010. It's really not until 2030
18 when the first -- 2030, the first of whom turn 65,
19 between now and then, refer to us as a middle age
20 society.
21 The second thing that is very important about
22 our age structure to recognize in a place like Texas is
23 this, and that is there's a clear relationship between
24 non-Anglo status and new status in Texas and in the
25 country by the way.
14
1 Now, here's a chart I show just two of our
2 racial groups. In blue is the Anglo population. In red
3 is the Hispanic population. And this is age groups. If
4 you go to, 65 what you find is 72 percent of that
5 population is Anglo, 18 percent is Hispanic.
6 If you go to less than five years of age on
7 the other hand what you find is that 39 percent is
8 Anglo, 42 percent is Hispanic, 61 percent in total of
9 the population under five years of age in Texas, and 57
10 percent of the population under 18 in Texas is
11 non-Anglo. So we very much have a society in Texas --
12 we can talk about this later -- that is an old Anglo,
13 young non-Anglo society.
14 Let's talk a little more about our future.
15 Now, this is another one of those slides, one of those
16 as you can plainly see, but what we project here, if
17 Texas were to continue to grow as it did in the 1990s,
18 Texas would have 50 million people in it. We would have
19 a growth rate of about 143 percent or 68 percent under
20 the slower growth scenario.
21 But you can see in all these cases the growth
22 of non-Anglo populations would be substantially greater.
23 As a result of that we now project under this scenario
24 by 2005, under this scenario by 2006, Texas will be less
25 than half Anglo and we project by 2026, under this
15
1 scenario 2035 Texas population will be more than half
2 Hispanic.
3 As we go forward in time by 2040 we would
4 have a population that was 24 percent Anglo, 8 percent
5 African-American, 59 percent Hispanic, and 9 percent of
6 other racial groups. By 2040, about 20 percent of our
7 population being 65 plus.
8 Our non-Anglo population will be
9 substantially younger. We're projecting that between
10 now and 2040 96 percent of the new additions to Texas
11 population will be non-Anglo and 78 percent of those new
12 additions will be Hispanic as we look at the future of
13 Texas.
14 This a general population. More than double,
15 about 4.8 or 4.6.
16 Next chart, notice again the changes that
17 differentiate by race and ethnicity and notice that what
18 we project under this is by 2040 in that general college
19 population in Texas about 20 percent Anglo, 8 percent
20 African-American, about 66 percent Hispanic, and about 6
21 percent could be members of other racial and ethnic
22 groups; and if you look at net change, these numbers add
23 up to a hundred percent.
24 What you see under every case, the Anglo
25 numbers in that 18 to 24 absolutely show an absolute
16
1 decline in total numbers.
2 Well, I did an overview very quickly of a
3 bunch of demographics, but what do these demographics
4 mean? Why care about them? You are people doing things
5 in the real world. These demographic characteristics
6 are tied with social economic characteristics; and if
7 you do not change the relationships that exist between
8 those two -- and we have the demographic changes that
9 we're talking about in Texas -- the implications for the
10 socioeconomic structure of Texas are very serious.
11 Let's take a look for a few minutes at some
12 of these interrelationships and then I'll be done. This
13 is a chart I find very, very depressing. We don't have
14 a 2000 chart yet because the data aren't out, but we
15 know what it shows.
16 This means I'm making as much money as I'm
17 ever going to make and that is indeed depressing. All
18 of the things are saying we have more money when we're
19 middle age.
20 Here is the chart that we find that's
21 unfortunately the same time after time, place after
22 place, is that after Hispanic, Hispanic, 55 to 75
23 percent of what the incomes are for Anglos, and what we
24 find for Texas is some very sobering socioeconomic
25 characteristics overall.
17
1 These are from the special surveys, 2000
2 census. It shows Texas ranking, and I want to point out
3 as we go through these four slides very quickly that
4 these are where Texas was in 2000 and I'll tell you
5 where Texas was in 1990 after a decade that was the most
6 extensive economic boom in Texas history perhaps. We
7 rank 29 among all the states. We rank 31st in 1990. We
8 ranked 31st under capital income both in 1990 and 2000
9 which suggests that the previous year was a matter of
10 difference in household society. We probably didn't
11 change our structure at all.
12 The next two for education are particularly
13 sobering. In 1990 Texas ranked 39 in terms of adult
14 populations in high school graduates. By 2000 we had
15 dropped to 45 of all the states. If you look at college
16 graduates, we've dropped from 23rd in 1990 to 27 in
17 2000.
18 What are some of the implications of this? I
19 want to show you three charts. It's work we did for the
20 legislature, something called the Texas Challenge. The
21 Texas legislature asked us to look at these demographics
22 and see what they meant for the state of Texas.
23 I'll show you a couple three slides. 1990 is
24 at the top, 2030 is at the bottom. These are colored to
25 show the Anglo population in blue, the African-American
18
1 population in yellow, Hispanic population in green,
2 other population in red.
3 If you look at these, that changed from 16
4 percent Anglo to about 37 percent Anglo. That's under
5 our old projections. Household, same pattern. Our
6 labor force goes from two-thirds Anglo to two-thirds
7 non-Anglo.
8 If we look at education, by 2030 we project
9 that 70 percent of all kids in Texas schools will be
10 non-Anglo. And if you ask me any figure that I give you
11 today that I am correct about, it is that figure.
12 In this chart blue is 1990, red is 2030.
13 What this chart shows is we do not change the
14 socioeconomic differences that exist in Texas society,
15 the Texas labor force in 2030 will he less well educated
16 than it is today. If you look at just a couple other
17 factors, we would also be poor.
18 This chart shows if we don't change those
19 dynamics, we don't change those socioeconomics, the
20 average Texas household in 2030 will be $4,000 poorer in
21 1990 dollars than it was in 1990, and we would be poorer
22 indeed with about three percent increase in the poverty
23 rate just as a result of these demographics.
24 The point I'm trying to make through all
25 these as I sum up is this, that the future of Texas as
19
1 you look as a demographic phenonemon is increasingly
2 tied to its non-Anglo populations and increasingly tied
3 within those populations to the Hispanic populations,
4 and if we do not change the education differences, if we
5 do not change the socioeconomics that exist in Texas
6 society, our state will be poor, our state will be less
7 competitive in the future than it is today.
8 I would like to say that, you know, the most
9 important thing for Texas in Texas Challenge was to
10 increase the socioeconomic achievement of non-Anglo
11 populations, and I can say that, but I would be the
12 biggest bigot that would walk the face of Texas and I
13 would have to say exactly the same thing because I know
14 by 2030 two of every three of our workers and six of our
15 kids in our colleges are going to be non-Anglo.
16 If we don't change the socioeconomic
17 differences we're talking about, as I mentioned a few
18 minutes ago, Texas will simply be less competitive than
19 it has been in the past; however, if we were to be able
20 to meet the challenge, provide education and other
21 opportunities, we could be competitive and at an
22 advantage because we would be one of the youngest states
23 placed in a very good geographic area to compete in
24 what's increasingly an international economy.
25 MR. HANNA: I would to thank you very much,
20
1 Dr. Murdock, for your presentation.
2 I would like to introduce Terri Flack, Deputy
3 Commissioner, Texas Higher Education Coordinating Board.
4 Ms. Flack coordinates in that capacity with a public
5 awareness that in Texas that comprises a comprehensive
6 long range higher education plan to close the education
7 achievement gap.
8 Ms. Flack is the Board's chief operating
9 officer and is responsible for administrative oversight
10 of six divisions and two offices. She acts as a liaison
11 to institutions of higher education and the Texas
12 legislature.
13 She served for six years as the board's
14 director of governmental relations and public
15 information, and as director she was in that time the
16 legislative liaison for the agency and oversaw their
17 public information office.
18 Ms. Flak earned a bachelor of science in
19 education and a master's from Southwest Texas State
20 University.
21 And we would like to very much welcome you
22 here this morning.
23 MS. FLACK: I'm always delighted to follow
24 Steve. Additionally I'm not a wanderer -- I know I'm a
25 bit far away -- and I do speak a little slower because
21
1 I'm from Texas, you see. But anyway I'm always
2 delighted to follow Steve because I really think in many
3 ways it was Steve Murdock's many years ago beating the
4 drum about what the future of Texas held that got the
5 attention of an awful lot of people in this state about
6 things that needed to change.
7 I really am not exaggerating when I say that
8 his clear and unambiguous picture of this bleak future
9 that we faced really focused attention in ways that had
10 never been focused before.
11 The coordinating board has a lot of
12 responsibilities, but one of it is to plan for higher
13 education in the state of Texas and we've planned in the
14 past. We have some wonderful plans that make wonderful
15 kind of door stops I think you can say. We have 25, 30
16 goals in the plan; and if you were to ask anyone who
17 didn't actually work on the plan, I would be willing to
18 bet that not one person in Texas knew what was actually
19 part of the higher education plan.
20 So in 1999 the board decided that they needed
21 to do things a little bit different, and in many ways it
22 was because of what Steve had said about the future, and
23 they decided what we really needed to do was focus on
24 the three to four most critical goals that higher
25 education needed to achieve in the next 15 years and
22
1 then decide what kind of strategy should we have and
2 what are the targets, how are we going to know if we're
3 on track to reach them.
4 So we had to be able to measure them and then
5 we wanted -- we're not a prescriptive agency. So we did
6 not want a plan that would limit the creativity and
7 flexibility of the institutions. We wanted them to find
8 ways to meet this challenge.
9 The result was a plan that the board called
10 Closing the Gaps by 2015 and it differs from any plan
11 that we've ever had in the past and probably most
12 importantly because it acts as the touchstone for
13 everything that we do as an agency and what we're trying
14 to get the institutions in the state to do.
15 You might ask why closing the gaps? Aren't
16 there any other kind names that you could choose, but it
17 goes back to the beginning. It goes back to Steve
18 Murdock who said there's some dangerous trends out there
19 and there are some big gaps that need to be closed.
20 What are those trends? Undereducated work
21 force if you don't do anything to change it and you're
22 not going to be able to compete in the global economy,
23 and probably something that got a lot of people's
24 attention was that the average household income was
25 going to decline by $4,000 from where we are right now.
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