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August 7, 2001 - PricewaterhouseCoopers Census Study:
CENSUS 2000 UNDERCOUNT COULD COST STATES BILLIONS


These estimates show the effect of the Census 2000 undercount on federal funding of eight major programs over a ten year period, 2002-20012. The eight programs are Medicaid, Foster Care, Rehabilitation Services Basic Support, Child Care and Development Block Grant, Social Services Block Grant, Substance Abuse Prevention and Treatment Block Grant, Adoption Assistance, and Vocational Education Basic Grants.

State Estimated 2000 Census Undercount:
State Undercount Undercount Rate3
State/
USTotal1
Over182 Under182 State/
USTotal
Over18 Under18
United States 3,355,585 2,213,342 1,142,243 1.18 1.05 1.56

Ohio 65,084 30,747 34,337 0.57 0.36 1.14

1Source: Dr. Eugene Ericksen, "Estimates of State and County Undercount Rates," May 1, 2001.
2PricewaterhouseCoopers calculations based on undercount rates provided by Dr. Ericksen.
3Undercount as a percent of adjusted population. U.S. Census Bureau and Dr. Eugene Ericksen, "Estimates of State and County Undercount Rates," May 1, 2001.

Selected County Estimated 2000 Census Undercount:
State, County 2000 Population Projection Estimated Undercount
Unadjusted
Count1
Adjusted
Count2
Number3 Rate4

Total, All 112 Selected Counties 125,460,358 127,081,879 1,621,521 1.28

Ohio 11,353,140 11,418,224 65,084 0.57
Cuyahoga County 1,393,978 1,407,137 13,159 0.94
Franklin County 1,068,978 1,077,965 8,987 0.83
Hamilton County 845,303 852,737 7,434 0.87
Montgomery County 559,062 563,089 4,027 0.72
Summit County 542,899 545,497 2,598 0.48

1Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Census 2000 Redistricting Data (P.L. 94-171) Summary File, Table 1.
2Equals unadjusted population count plus undercount.
3Equals adjusted minus unadjusted 2000 population projections.
4Undercount as a percent of adjusted population. U.S. Census Bureau and Dr. Eugene Ericksen, "Estimates of State and County Undercount Rates," May 1, 2001.
5Baltimore City is an independent city (i.e., it is independent of any county organization).
6Richmond County is included in order to comprise the 5 counties of New York City.

Estimated Effect of 2000 Census Undercount On Federal Funding for the State (thousands of dollars):
State 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2002-2012

Ohio 2,539 54,039 58,567 63,566 68,864 74,629 796,077

Total, United States 0 -31,924 -34,726 -37,826 -41,114 -44,693 -478,297
Funding Gains 16,436 245,656 265,865 288,148 311,756 319,336 3,594,843
Funding Losses -16,436 -277,580 -300,591 -325,974 -352,870 -364,028 -4,073,140

Source: PricewaterhouseCoopers calculations.

Estimated Effect of 2000 Census Undercount On Federal Funding By Selected County:
State, County Between-State Effects
(Thousands)
Within-State Effects
(Thousands)
Net Effect
Amount
(Thousands)
Percent1
 
Ohio
Cuyahoga County 97,745 -43,725 54,020 0.5%
Franklin County 74,956 -24,186 50,770 0.6%
Hamilton County 59,272 -21,898 37,374 0.5%
Montgomery County 39,201 -6,952 32,249 0.7%
Summit County 38,068 4,354 42,422 0.9%

Source: PricewaterhouseCoopers calculations.
* Denotes less than 0.05%.
1Net effect as a percent of the adjusted funding level under the eight programs over 2002-2012
2Baltimore City is an independent city (i.e., it is independent of any county organization).
3Richmond County is included in order to comprise the 5 counties of New York city.


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