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August 7, 2001 - PricewaterhouseCoopers Census Study:
CENSUS 2000 UNDERCOUNT COULD COST STATES BILLIONS
These estimates show the effect of the Census 2000 undercount on federal funding of eight major programs over a ten year period, 2002-20012. The eight programs are Medicaid, Foster Care, Rehabilitation Services Basic Support, Child Care and Development Block Grant, Social Services Block Grant, Substance Abuse Prevention and Treatment Block Grant, Adoption Assistance, and Vocational Education Basic Grants.
State Estimated 2000 Census Undercount: |
State |
Undercount |
Undercount Rate3 |
|
State/
USTotal1 |
Over182 |
Under182 |
State/
USTotal |
Over18 |
Under18 |
United States |
3,355,585 |
2,213,342 |
1,142,243 |
1.18 |
1.05 |
1.56 |
|
California |
522,796 |
376,851 |
145,944 |
1.52 |
1.51 |
1.54 |
|
Selected County Estimated 2000 Census Undercount: |
State, County |
2000 Population Projection |
Estimated Undercount |
Unadjusted
Count1 |
Adjusted
Count2 |
Number3 |
Rate4 |
|
Total, All 112 Selected Counties |
125,460,358 |
127,081,879 |
1,621,521 |
1.28 |
|
California |
33,871,648 |
34,394,444 |
522,796 |
1.52 |
Alameda County |
1,443,741 |
1,463,267 |
19,526 |
1.33 |
Contra Costa County |
948,816 |
957,328 |
8,512 |
0.89 |
Fresno County |
799,407 |
812,347 |
12,940 |
1.59 |
Kern County |
661,645 |
670,843 |
9,198 |
1.37 |
Los Angeles County |
9,519,338 |
9,694,716 |
175,378 |
1.81 |
Orange County |
2,846,289 |
2,881,546 |
35,257 |
1.22 |
Riverside County |
1,545,387 |
1,563,399 |
18,012 |
1.15 |
Sacramento County |
1,223,499 |
1,236,842 |
13,343 |
1.08 |
San Bernardino County |
1,709,434 |
1,732,375 |
22,941 |
1.32 |
San Diego County |
2,813,833 |
2,850,103 |
36,270 |
1.27 |
San Francisco County |
776,733 |
788,191 |
11,458 |
1.45 |
San Joaquin County |
563,598 |
571,318 |
7,720 |
1.35 |
San Mateo County |
707,161 |
714,694 |
7,533 |
1.05 |
Santa Clara County |
1,682,585 |
1,702,011 |
19,426 |
1.14 |
Ventura County |
753,197 |
761,381 |
8,184 |
1.07 |
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Estimated Effect of 2000 Census Undercount On Federal Funding for the State (thousands of dollars): |
State |
2002 |
2003 |
2004 |
2005 |
2006 |
2007 |
2002-2012 |
|
California |
-3,823 |
-102,112 |
-110,676 |
-120,163 |
-130,220 |
-141,153 |
-1,506,191 |
|
Total, United States |
0 |
-31,924 |
-34,726 |
-37,826 |
-41,114 |
-44,693 |
-478,297 |
Funding Gains |
16,436 |
245,656 |
265,865 |
288,148 |
311,756 |
319,336 |
3,594,843 |
Funding Losses |
-16,436 |
-277,580 |
-300,591 |
-325,974 |
-352,870 |
-364,028 |
-4,073,140 |
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Estimated Effect of 2000 Census Undercount On Federal Funding By Selected County: |
State, County |
Between-State Effects
(Thousands) |
Within-State Effects
(Thousands) |
Net Effect |
Amount
(Thousands) |
Percent1 |
|
California |
Alameda County |
-64,200 |
20,600 |
-43,599 |
-0.4% |
Contra Costa County |
-42,192 |
45,820 |
3,628 |
0.1% |
Fresno County |
-35,548 |
-4,494 |
-40,042 |
-0.7% |
Kern County |
-29,422 |
7,574 |
-21,848 |
-0.4% |
Los Angeles County |
-423,302 |
-212,558 |
-635,860 |
-0.9% |
Orange County |
-126,568 |
64,807 |
-61,761 |
-0.3% |
Riverside County |
-68,720 |
43,634 |
-25,086 |
-0.2% |
Sacramento County |
-54,406 |
41,399 |
-13,008 |
-0.1% |
San Bernardino County |
-76,014 |
25,725 |
-50,289 |
-0.4% |
San Diego County |
-125,124 |
53,499 |
-71,626 |
-0.3% |
San Francisco County |
-34,539 |
3,962 |
-30,578 |
-0.5% |
San Joaquin County |
-25,062 |
7,310 |
-17,752 |
-0.4% |
San Mateo County |
-31,446 |
25,268 |
-6,177 |
-0.1% |
Santa Clara County |
-74,821 |
48,889 |
-25,932 |
-0.2% |
Ventura County |
-33,493 |
25,711 |
-7,782 |
-0.1% |
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