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August 7, 2001 - PricewaterhouseCoopers Census Study:
CENSUS 2000 UNDERCOUNT COULD COST STATES BILLIONS


These estimates show the effect of the Census 2000 undercount on federal funding of eight major programs over a ten year period, 2002-20012. The eight programs are Medicaid, Foster Care, Rehabilitation Services Basic Support, Child Care and Development Block Grant, Social Services Block Grant, Substance Abuse Prevention and Treatment Block Grant, Adoption Assistance, and Vocational Education Basic Grants.

State Estimated 2000 Census Undercount:
State Undercount Undercount Rate3
State/
USTotal1
Over182 Under182 State/
USTotal
Over18 Under18
United States 3,355,585 2,213,342 1,142,243 1.18 1.05 1.56

California 522,796 376,851 145,944 1.52 1.51 1.54

1Source: Dr. Eugene Ericksen, "Estimates of State and County Undercount Rates," May 1, 2001.
2PricewaterhouseCoopers calculations based on undercount rates provided by Dr. Ericksen.
3Undercount as a percent of adjusted population. U.S. Census Bureau and Dr. Eugene Ericksen, "Estimates of State and County Undercount Rates," May 1, 2001.

Selected County Estimated 2000 Census Undercount:
State, County 2000 Population Projection Estimated Undercount
Unadjusted
Count1
Adjusted
Count2
Number3 Rate4

Total, All 112 Selected Counties 125,460,358 127,081,879 1,621,521 1.28

California 33,871,648 34,394,444 522,796 1.52
Alameda County 1,443,741 1,463,267 19,526 1.33
Contra Costa County 948,816 957,328 8,512 0.89
Fresno County 799,407 812,347 12,940 1.59
Kern County 661,645 670,843 9,198 1.37
Los Angeles County 9,519,338 9,694,716 175,378 1.81
Orange County 2,846,289 2,881,546 35,257 1.22
Riverside County 1,545,387 1,563,399 18,012 1.15
Sacramento County 1,223,499 1,236,842 13,343 1.08
San Bernardino County 1,709,434 1,732,375 22,941 1.32
San Diego County 2,813,833 2,850,103 36,270 1.27
San Francisco County 776,733 788,191 11,458 1.45
San Joaquin County 563,598 571,318 7,720 1.35
San Mateo County 707,161 714,694 7,533 1.05
Santa Clara County 1,682,585 1,702,011 19,426 1.14
Ventura County 753,197 761,381 8,184 1.07

1Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Census 2000 Redistricting Data (P.L. 94-171) Summary File, Table 1.
2Equals unadjusted population count plus undercount.
3Equals adjusted minus unadjusted 2000 population projections.
4Undercount as a percent of adjusted population. U.S. Census Bureau and Dr. Eugene Ericksen, "Estimates of State and County Undercount Rates," May 1, 2001.
5Baltimore City is an independent city (i.e., it is independent of any county organization).
6Richmond County is included in order to comprise the 5 counties of New York City.

Estimated Effect of 2000 Census Undercount On Federal Funding for the State (thousands of dollars):
State 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2002-2012

California -3,823 -102,112 -110,676 -120,163 -130,220 -141,153 -1,506,191

Total, United States 0 -31,924 -34,726 -37,826 -41,114 -44,693 -478,297
Funding Gains 16,436 245,656 265,865 288,148 311,756 319,336 3,594,843
Funding Losses -16,436 -277,580 -300,591 -325,974 -352,870 -364,028 -4,073,140

Source: PricewaterhouseCoopers calculations.

Estimated Effect of 2000 Census Undercount On Federal Funding By Selected County:
State, County Between-State Effects
(Thousands)
Within-State Effects
(Thousands)
Net Effect
Amount
(Thousands)
Percent1
 
California
Alameda County -64,200 20,600 -43,599 -0.4%
Contra Costa County -42,192 45,820 3,628 0.1%
Fresno County -35,548 -4,494 -40,042 -0.7%
Kern County -29,422 7,574 -21,848 -0.4%
Los Angeles County -423,302 -212,558 -635,860 -0.9%
Orange County -126,568 64,807 -61,761 -0.3%
Riverside County -68,720 43,634 -25,086 -0.2%
Sacramento County -54,406 41,399 -13,008 -0.1%
San Bernardino County -76,014 25,725 -50,289 -0.4%
San Diego County -125,124 53,499 -71,626 -0.3%
San Francisco County -34,539 3,962 -30,578 -0.5%
San Joaquin County -25,062 7,310 -17,752 -0.4%
San Mateo County -31,446 25,268 -6,177 -0.1%
Santa Clara County -74,821 48,889 -25,932 -0.2%
Ventura County -33,493 25,711 -7,782 -0.1%

Source: PricewaterhouseCoopers calculations.
* Denotes less than 0.05%.
1Net effect as a percent of the adjusted funding level under the eight programs over 2002-2012
2Baltimore City is an independent city (i.e., it is independent of any county organization).
3Richmond County is included in order to comprise the 5 counties of New York city.


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